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Foundation ModelsVenture & Startup Markets

Anthropic Files S-1 Ahead of Massive IPO

October 31, 2026|2 min

A perspective from Contrary Research.

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Anthropic publicly filed for an IPO on October 26 and plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The filing showed that Anthropic brought in $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, 14x the $1.2 billion it made in the same period of 2025. In addition, Anthropic’s Q2 revenue grew 1,368% year over year while its compute costs grew 300%, implying an improving return on compute spend. Meanwhile, most of the $80.7 billion first-half net loss it disclosed was a non-cash accounting charge that grew with Anthropic’s valuation, and its operations actually turned a $1 billion profit in Q2.

Reactions from the tech world were mostly positive, although skepticism remained. Gavin Baker of Atreides Management wrote on the day of the filing that Anthropic’s revenue had “likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.” Box CEO Aaron Levie noted the S-1’s disclosure that Anthropic’s average Fortune 500 customer spends less than 0.1% of its expenses on Anthropic, arguing that “there’s no reason it can’t be 10-50X higher than this.” Conviction founder Sarah Guo pointed to an “inflection in operating profit” but also a “mismatch [between] consumption based revenue and long term compute obligations.” On the other hand, Gary Marcus, a longtime AI skeptic, wrote that heavy AI spending by companies including Anthropic has “at least an 80% chance” of being “the greatest capital misallocation in history.”

Overall, the S-1 seems like a positive update on the health of Anthropic’s business. Anthropic is growing quickly with improving margins, while its customer concentration risk is lessening. Customers outside its top five accounted for 79% of revenue in Q3, up from 64% in Q1. Nevertheless, investors have been concerned about the pace of Anthropic’s growth. At an investor day two weeks before the filing, some were reportedly disappointed that revenue grew 45% from Q2 to Q3 after more than doubling the quarter before, and they discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion floated earlier. The S-1 implies Q3 revenue of about $16.9 billion, consistent with that slowdown, so the case for a higher valuation rests on whether growth picks back up.

Authors

  • Sachin Maini

    Senior Editor

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Authors

  • Sachin Maini

    Senior Editor

    Sachin Maini is Senior Editor of Contrary Research, where he's led the publication of 500+ company-specific reports and dozens of industry deep dives. Prior to Contrary, Sachin led content for NFX, publishing several seminal essays on network effects for the firm.

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